Are we immature, or are choices more difficult in an uncertain environment?

"The one who gets wisdom loves life; the one who cherishes understanding will soon prosper." Proverbs 9:18

Geoffrey Moore recently wrote, “in a Darwinian marketplace of ideas, rationality is our strongest asset. Yet, viral misinformation thrives when we confuse freedom of speech with license to deceive.” Aside from shear deception, there is also the fear of creating an apathetic, skeptical, confused and scared populace.

It’s a problem that needs a solution now. Critical thinking, too often lacking in the world of ‘information quick bytes’, needs to be the foundation of any decision making. However, lack of clarity doesn’t help. Uncertainty creates risk and the current Federal administration, has created real risks. If fostering and developing a marketplace of ideas is more important than ever, the details are lost in obscurity, confusion, obfuscation and misrepresentation. Case in point, the proposed reductions to health care and the impacts to the bio and med tech fields will erode the foundation of America’s role in the future of healthcare and disease around the world. We hear the criticism about national or global health organizations not serving the right interests or simply, just ‘stealing our money’. But that’s usually all we hear. Where are the ideas to improve? The strategy of simply tearing down the character of those individuals or ideas of those institutions without basis is dangerous. Arguments that demonstrate favorable support, are often ignored to get to some unknown point: ’it’s bad, so it’s bad and we are not going to take part in the bad any more’. How is it bad? Why is it bad? How has it shifted from focus? Where is it wasting money?…questions like these never seem to be answered. Then, decisions are made and either intentional or unintentional damage is done, with no clear understanding of why.

Oh just grow up already...

There are those that make an effort to take concepts, ideas and facts, and take the time to explain these concepts in the plethora of media modalities out there. Why is this important? Access to rational, fact based discussions on a number of topics creating uncertainty in today’s world is extremely important. It keeps us focused and informed. I’m a fan of the All-In Podcast In podcast. It’s not only insightful and intelligent it can be pretty funny at times. However, I was listening the other day to a particularly insightful issue and Chamath Palihapitiya made what I thought was a glib and flippant comment in an otherwise clear and concise argument for the positives of where the current administration is focused. His ideas usually resonate with me, regardless of my personal opinions. I respect Mr. Palihapitiya. He is accomplished, intelligent, and I believe, very forward thinking (I’d say stylish, but I’ll let his Besties stroke his ego on that one). His focus is the business of technology and the future of America. However, his support of this current Administration’s methods and manners are confusing. I am sure he understands that it is leadership that sets the tone for those who follow. Clear vision, smart strategy, and the ability to be calculated and calm even in the midst of disruption.

Segment of the All In podcast

As a successful leader, I am sure his teams, partners and investors have benefitted from his decisiveness, his perspectives, measured words (usually) and clear connecting of obscure dots to be able to move forward successfully. However, unless he has more information than most, I am not sure why he’s blaming the American people for not wanting to pull up their bootstraps and carry water for this administration. I guess we need to “grow up” and ‘make some difficult decisions’ otherwise America will not recover. Wrong approach. This is a pedantic perspective that only helps foster unsubstantiated division.

While he tries to bridge the communication of concepts and strategies, and uses his influence to help clear the cloud of mistrust, I would hope this feedback is also getting to leadership and tries to create more clear and effective communication. If we are to approach the challenge of surviving the Darwinian marketplace of ideas, then maybe leadership needs to help Americans understand those ideas more clearly. Maybe leadership needs to articulate their approach with empathy, competence and a fact based rationality that is required more than ever before. Histories great leaders rallied their citizenry with clarity, with evidence, and with the ability to outline their direction and the reasons for them, thus creating more successful outcomes and forward progress. Some ideas to be passed along to the members of the administration that may help:

1. Providing Access to Information and Resources: Offering resources, training, data and education on policy and entrepreneurial development can empower the constituency. Governments can establish programs that help educate people on the strategy and reasoning for the policy and enable access to key, rationale points.

2. Promoting Economic Stability: By maintaining economic stability and reducing uncertainty (e.g., through fiscal policies and support during economic downturns), governments can create a more manageable philosophy that will engage the citizenry to adopt changes and support policy to do better. It doesn’t hurt that this would also create a more attractive investment climate.

3. Focusing on Emerging Sectors: The government can identify and openly support policy and emerging industries and technologies that have high growth potential. Strategic investment in these areas can generate interest from investors. Establishing and supporting clear direction allow people to choose those paths more confidently.

4. Creating and Supporting Innovation Hubs: Establishing or improving existing innovation hubs, not tearing them down to simply save money can enhance collaboration among startups, researchers, and investors. These hubs can serve as ecosystems that attract venture capital.

5. Utilizing Government Investment Funds: Governments can create or expand existing investment funds that directly invest in startups, thereby demonstrating confidence in emerging sectors and encouraging private venture capital participation.

Freezing Out The Future

Real world example: the confusion around NIH and NCI funding as well as already executed job cuts and operational slow-downs have created a significant negative disruption in the area of cancer and other health and welfare related R&D. This uncertainty delays important programs, initiates hiring freezes, creates delays in grants and has even resulted in terminations. This is slowing the pace of scientific breakthroughs and stifles progression of new opportunities and technologies. Researchers and technicians may choose alternative careers or worse, decide to choose opportunities in other countries, draining the pipelines of these resources. Proposed cuts will have a broader implication to overall public health. Aside from cancer, progress in diseases like Alzheimer’s, mental health, diabetes, heart disease, could be jeopardized, as developing treatments and therapies are delayed or cancelled to preserve resources. All of this is happening today, as we speak or read. A simple prompt for articles on this disruptive tactic in Google search or Chat GPT will surrender plenty of articles documenting the confusion and consternation that is consuming so many areas of med and bio tech.

2 in 5 Americans in their lifetime will experience cancer...approximately 620K people a year die from cancer…in the U.S. alone!

Amidst all this self-inflicted uncertainty, I wonder if federal leadership is as concerned with the following as it is in reinventing trade agreements or AI: 2 in 5 Americans in their lifetime will experience cancer. I wonder if they understand that approximately 620K people a year die from cancer…in the U.S. alone! I have listened to many leaders in the world of cancer medicine and research agree that we need to be thinking of new and creative ways to create better outcomes for patients. The focus needs to be on developing faster, cheaper, more accessible and effective solutions to improve outcomes. Progress was being made in so many ways across various types of cancer. The NIH was demonstrating favorable returns on the dollars they were using and distributing to support many programs. Yet, somehow current proposals have funding being slashed in a way to seriously slow down current progress with no real explanation… why? A more thorough answer is required and not the usual, ‘spending needs to be cut’. Why here? Mr. Palihaiptiya’s pleadings for Americans to grow up can be answered if those Americans had some stable information to plan on…instead, they wait for the uncertainty to clear. In the meantime, valuable time, resources and even existing research falls off into the ether of nothing, caused by unwillingness to increase the risk in an already risky environment.

We have a government that doesn’t clearly articulate their strategy and chooses hubris over empathy. We have a media fixated on stirring up the emotions of their follower ship, and we have special interests scrambling to catch their supporting soundbite without a true big picture view. So those of us who are trying to make a difference, change the models, think in innovative and creative ways to get a glimpse of what the next 20 years looks like, struggle with the murky cloud stirred up from the garbled messages coming from the top. Important messages such as: AI is behind in the US. Physical power and regulatory constraints are an impediment. The debt issue is insurmountable so drastic austerity may be required. Civil and social norms and rights should be suspended to ensure the “safety” for all. The average households is consumed with debt and risk. Again, almost 620K will die a year from some form of cancer and 2 in 5 people in the U.S. will experience cancer in their lifetime. … All real issues, and this is the tip of the iceberg.

All this is taking place while clear and real examples that leadership is enriching themselves openly, while the people struggle to even understand how they get to the end of the month with expenses or a shortage of resources, or an uncertain future. They wonder what supply chain issues, or pricing impact they will incur. They try to plan marketing and other operational planning, necessary to support their business, with so many moving targets in play. Instead of creating a more transparent and honest environment, regardless of what the real picture look like - most grown ups I know can take bad news and deal with it if there is even a modicum of honesty. Instead, accomplishments are tainted with gross hints of corruption that mocks the quiet corruption that may have been taking place in the backroom dealings of politicians before; dangling their ill gotten gains while so many struggle.

"The single biggest problem in communication is the illusion that it has taken place."

George Bernard Shaw

None of this self-inflicted turmoil necessary. The American people are grown up. Our shortfalls are clear, but the discussion is not focused on how to fix the issues, but rather who is to blame and like rats leaving a sinking ship, leveraging those shortfalls for personal gain. We are at a pivotal moment that will most definitely shape our future. So we can point to the past greatness of what once was an empire that has truly shaped the world in so many ways, or we can look to the future and regain our position in the world as a great leader with a clear vision and the proper mechanisms to remove the risk of our ventures, but it is not going to happen until we return to rational clear thought and communication. Mr. Palihapitiya is right, we have to prioritize what needs to be fixed first. We have to understand not only our risks, but the opportunities available to mitigate those risks. It won’t come easy until this administration becomes more intelligent and more transparent in its approach.

I encourage you to listen to the All In podcast. I also encourage Mr. Palihapitiya to share his perspectives with his audience often…but I also encourage him to share with this administration, the importance of being a true leader in a time of significant change.